Friday, May 1, 2020

Economic Turmoil Dead Ahead

I think many families in the United States are about to get pulled down one or two rungs on the economic ladder. We're not in full Weimar mode, yet, but might get there relatively soon. There are three problems for the $:

  • China and its economic partners are abandoning the dollar in trade;
  • Production of goods and services in the US has been disrupted, but currency supplies are increasing massively.
  • The average American is a retard who is easily fooled by propaganda.

Initially, working poor people will get a large portion of their earnings/government stipend swallowed up by inflation. Food inflation seems to be coming right around the corner. The people who are hardest hit by inflation will shift from whatever productive activities they were involved in to survival mode. That means crime rates will go up in areas where there are high concentrations of poor people (cities). That is also a negative feedback mechanism for productivity.

The people further up the ladder economically will start to see their savings evaporate in real terms. In Weimar, people with savings tried to avoid inflation by purchasing stock. Eventually people with some cash become useless financial speculators rather than productive people. It's another negative feedback mechanism.

It's probably pointless to speculate too much about what might happen. Highly leveraged businesses and institutions (like colleges and universities) are going to have a really rough time ahead; attempts to bail them out will feed into inflation.

No comments:

Post a Comment