Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Normalcy Bias and Weird Reaction to Pandemic Possibility

It's still pretty close to impossible to know what's really going on with the coronavirus. It seems plausible that it is a bioweapon that was released from a lab for an unknown purpose. The infection rate and mortality rate seem relatively high. China seems to be severely affected. It's possible, even plausible that death-cult members in South Korea purposely spread the virus there.

Life goes on like normal almost everywhere, though. The daily commute is polluting the air on our road. The kids are going to school. I drove into work yesterday. Every day in the back of my mind is the question: "when do I just stay home?" If it starts spreading at all in the United States, I will pull the plug on driving into more populated areas. Airline travel and the economy will probably grind to a total halt.

I think a panic reaction by people in big cities on the West Coast of the US could be the "go" signal for everyone else in the country. I think the "normalcy bias" will keep people in their routines for quite some time, but a major freakout in LA or San Francisco will shatter that normalcy bias quickly. The obvious "strategy" is to avoid concentrations of people "too soon" rather than "too late".

It seems pretty inevitable that the economy is going to collapse in a major way, and also money is going to become essentially worthless. It'll be interesting to see if people rebalance their thinking about "value" and money in the wake of a serious crisis.

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