Peasant revolts have an 0-fer record, but Imperial powers also have an 0-fer record against peasants in places like Afghanistan, which is really interesting. Governments do well at crushing organized opposition, but crumble in the face of distributed, random opposition.
It's really easy to see why. In the previous post I pointed out that a T-72 tank is about as expensive as a Bugatti super car. Not only does the tank cost a lot to build, but it also is expensive to maintain and keep running, which requires a team of mechanics and a functioning supply chain. Also the tank includes a crew of specifically trained soldiers. Empires and big governments set up large organizations to build and maintain that type of equipment.
It is difficult to maintain all that infrastructure in a hostile country. In fact, it seems impossible. The USA couldn't do it in Iraq or Afghanistan. It seems vulnerable to attack. The USA with its drones, helicopters, spy networks, satellites and bottomless credit card could not control Afghanistan nor Iraq. Countries that are apparently orders of magnitude less capable and less wealthy defeated it. The same thing appears to be happening in Yemen versus Saudi Arabia.
In the scenario that's brewing in the western world, i.e. a possible attempt to turn it into a giant China-style slave colony, the scenario is different than Iraq or Afghanistan. In fact it's almost exactly like the Boer Wars. A hostile government would be able to attack the civilian infrastructure to control it.
In fact, that's been going on since 2020, probably earlier, under various pretexts like covid. Governments in the west are centralizing power. The people don't feel the need to "fight back", but might have to in the not-so-distant future. What does that look like?
Armed, organized resistance wouldn't work. Completely distributed and random warfare would. A "gray man militia" would dissolve and destroy even highly organized corporate governments in the western countries. It would even work in overtly totalitarian shitholes like China. Tens of thousands of motivated people with no command and control really couldn't be stopped.
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