How Much Can Be Wasted?

There are many types of economic activity that are tightly constrained, for example, in the US it's extremely rare to build any new railroad lines, now. Similarly, road construction and even basic maintenance of roads and bridges is severely constrained. Only $X is allocated to that every year, and when money isn't available, the roads simply fall apart. Road departments can't just grab more and more money.

That contrasts strongly with the "AI" hysteria, or the COVID hysteria, or warmongering activity. In those cases endless billions of dollars are available to burn. These things are like a resource hernia or cancer. Nothing in the system imposes a constraint on them, so the mega consumption of resources shows up as symptoms like inflation, or failing supply chains, and the public unwittingly carries the burden.

The LLMs are a particularly interesting case to me because the hype and reality are so far apart. I tried to use the google LLM a few times so far. For example, I've been using a tool called "mkosi" lately which generates Linux operating system images based on a simple conf file. mkosi is a great, very useful tool for the type of work I do. If there's anything an LLM should actually be able to do successfully, it would be to crank out simple conf files, but it doesn't. It spits out incorrect nonsense most of the time.

It's 1000x more efficient for me to read the mkosi documentation and just create the file myself than trying to type in chatbot prompt patterns. I recognize that, but I know many people don't and they'll spend all day typing away to chatbots burning up electricity and accomplish less than nothing.

How much can be wasted on these mega-waste projects? Prior examples provide some bleak guidance. The Vietnam war was a similar boondoggle, probably run by the parents of the current generation of resource wasters, and it actually broke the US financial system of the day. Charles deGaul actually broke it.  That is some outside force had to call bullshit on the criminals in DC. Now, it's a good question if there's any such "outside force" as all the countries have a similar debt based financial system and enjoy printing endless amounts of cash for their dumb projects and crony enrichment.

If it requires a public revolt to staunch the flow of waste, it probably has a long way to run. The past several decades of systemically bad strategic choices by the ruling class which directly harm the public in the US haven't led to a revolt. The election of Trump, a total fraud, was maybe a soft version of that, however, the mass of people seems quite far from the "kill all of them" moment.