Saturday, June 11, 2022

Perpetual "Revolution" Via Tech

 The people who developed vat meat make all kinds of claims about how superior it is to the traditional forms of animal husbandry which were developed over the course of thousands of years. Almost every new technology that would potentially replace a large incumbent industry makes similar grandiose claims, like the EV industry. Such claims rarely pan out. Nothing is a panacea, every technology comes with hidden noxious problems, and few innovations stand the test of time.

The bicycle industry is a really great example of this. There's new bicycle products every year, but few stand up to harsh testing and real world use, so the bicycle improves slowly and incrementally. The cultural evolution of technology is generally slow and steady.

Every day, now, there's some breakthru gamechanger, world changing revolutionary technology announced and its pretty common for the government to get involved in pushing them and banning competition.

I think the people and countries that reject this approach will fare much better in the longer run than those who adopt all the new things. EVs are a really great example--they might always suck and not really be a viable replacement for liquid fuel cars. Western countries will mandate them and sink a lot of resources into charging networks, etc... and might end up with a worse system overall than a country like Russia for example which is going the opposite direction.

The perpetual top-down "revolution" by tech won't work so well. It's got too much management overhead and is too brittle.

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