From the "water" has a specific meaning in the parlance of celestial mythology. (See this post for more info.) The water, I believe, means the emergence of a constellation above the horizon, that is, the rising of the constellation before sunrise.
Additional clues are provided by Aslaug's accouterments when she meets Ragnar for the first time wearing a costume that answers his riddle. She wears a net, carries an apple, and has a dog companion.
The apple represents the sun, which, around the autumn equinox, rises in the hand of the constellation Virgo. The dog is the dog star Sirius, which heralds the arrival of Virgo in the morning darkness on the eastern horizon. Virgo is often frequently depicted in her various representations as being led by or riding a lion, that is, the constellation Leo. However, in this case, since the dog is on a lead, I think the allusion is to Sirius.
Stellarium Screenshot of Virgo Led by Sirius in October |
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