Friday, September 16, 2022

You Must Believe!

Many of the people who support green energy, EVs, or other such causes are essentially cult members. They think their belief is significant, and of course they think critique of their idols is bad and will "halt progress". That is, they think a critic of EVs somehow prevents the batteries from improving. This is the same mental model many people had for covid vaccines. If you believe the vaccine will cure all. If you don't people will still get sick from covid.

The only thing that will influence the efficacy of EVs is battery technology. If the batteries get significantly better and some other engineering problems are solved, EVs will outcompete ICE cars. If the batteries improve, solar energy will outcompete every other form of power generation. 

Right now, they suck. They're right on the boundary of usable, but are still unproven and pretty janky. The EVs are mainly for early adopter, hobbyist minded people. They are usable, but only for a narrow range of cases. Solar is really similar. It's feasible. It works, but it's pretty expensive. Most people don't want to dick around with their car, or their electric service all the time, or at all, the same way they don't want to mess around with their stove or fridge multiple times a day. Most people don't want a potential fire hazard in their house.

The club of fanboys and believers is much larger than the people who actually spend the $100,000 on a car, or tens of thousands on solar power. Some of them believe the outcome of the quest for better batteries will be influenced by their belief. It won't.

No comments:

Post a Comment