Hyper Frenetic Tech Industry

Bicycles are my go to example for how new technology actually, really "wins" and becomes part of the civilization toolkit. There's an innovation process and a winnowing process constantly at work, so over time "truth" is revealed and the stuff that's no good ends up in the trash can of bike history.

For example, there's a constant parade of "bottom bracket" designs. (The bottom bracket is the part that holds the cranks in a bike frame.) They all appear to "work" initially, but then suffer from real world problems, like they creak too much, or are too hard to install or remove, or require tight tolerances during manufacturing, etc... These problems don't show up in an engineering lab and are only revealed through use.

By contrast, the tech industry has no winnowing process now. New stuff comes out at such a frenetic pace that it's not really possible to even evaluate in depth. At my job, I'm currently thinking through an approach for a new gizmo. The approaches of like 5-10 years ago are hopelessly obsolete junk. There's myriad new stuff that's better. However, by the time I might prototype and propose a scheme, it'll already be old and maybe surpassed.

This is a novel scenario in my tech career. In the early 2000s, the shelf life of approaches to product designs might last 5 years or more. Now it's like 6 months at most. The things that are just a few years old but already obsolete can have a Weekend at Bernie's zombie existence and endless unwilling minions that maintain and operate them.

This is an unnatural state of affairs because there's endless money for tech projects but of course there's limited energy, natural resources, and human time and interest. Everything in the natural world is cyclical, and the cycles are hard wired into people's minds and bodies.

Elon Musk is the public persona associated with this scenario. The Elon character always proposes wacky tech plans and gets endless investment. It's not clear if the stuff he's financed is really viable long term, like SpaceX or Starlink, etc... Several companies he owned/promoted failed, but apparently it doesn't matter. Some ideas he promotes are retarded, like space AI data centers, but people pretend like its a good idea because "it might work" and be the "next big thing".

The frenetic behavior associated with the tech industry is like aversion to opportunity cost or commitment of resources, but actually is an opportunity cost itself. As everyone chases the next big thing, they leave the previous projects partially finished. There's an accumulation of losses and debts in financial terms which manifests as severe loss of purchasing power for the average joe and jane's dollar.