1893 Financial Collapse

 

The above graph is from Peter Turchin's blog: https://peterturchin.com/age-of-discord/

In 1893 the US financial system imploded, mainly because the rail industry and really the whole industrial economy turned into a money burning machine. That happens periodically, and is happening now. I don't think it's a coincidence that the "elite overproduction" metric coincides with the popping of the rail bubble, just like the currently unpopped AI bubble today. IMO, the explanations for that are simple: there's too many people overall, and there are too many people trying to make money with money instead of actually working. Today there are a host of FOMO scams and retard traps, like gambling, crypto currency speculation, stonks and there's an endless supply of money. 

As in 1800s America, there is a current wave of immigration to feed the beast and absorb money. That causes friction with the native population, for obvious reasons. I think that's pretty tapped out, though. In tech, the cost of outsourced workers has been steadily rising and, while it's not at parity with the US salaries, it's pretty close, so the risk involved in moving half way around the world might outweigh the potential lifestyle reward.

There's a corresponding growth in bullshit and ideology in these elite overproduction eras too. Today it's not religious ideology, but it's political nonsense, especially on "the left" which is basically gays and women, but "the right" is loaded with a bunch of cults--Zionism is a big aum shin rikyo style murder cult. The "temperance movement" went bananas in the late 1800s, early 1900s. A figure like Carrie Nation became nationally prominent. It makes sense that the most extreme, in her case, literally insane, psychopathic authoritarian twats gain prominence in such a time. They're useful idiots for schemers, plus the competition for attention among such loons is pretty fierce at such a time.

Here's the wikipedia article on the "Panic of 1893". The idea that wild "investing" waves like the AI bubble or the rail bubble can grow ad infinitum is a mathematical impossibility. The "systemic" problem arises from bank participation in these scams. Joe Public assumes the banks are stable and make prudent, limited investments, but they're not. They weren't back then, they aren't today. The depositor money is actually pissed away on car loans on Dodge Challengers, and on corporate schemes, like AI stonks, etc... When the first big scam implodes, it leads to a predictable unwinding of the system as everyone scrambles to preserve wealth.

Since the whole economy runs on bank credit, basically, when all that shit eventually goes bad, no businesses can operate. The very old school approach to business, where a person self funds operations, like some Amish do might still function. It seems likely that supply chains of basic stuff like gasoline and natural gas and electricity might lock up completely in the event of a big disaster finance bro MBA retard implosion.

Anyway, today, the feds and banks won't allow a deflationary collapse, so we'll get crushed with hyperinflation as the cretins who run the system try to herd people into government crypto currencies and the like.