Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Off the Grid

In the United States quite a bit (something like 30%, now) of the economy is directed by the federal government. What does that mean in practice?

Rather than people making improvements to their own homes, or infrastructure improvements in their towns, enormous resources, engineering talent, and other expertise is absorbed into federal sponsored projects, for example the F-35.

The USA seems to be following a pretty typical pattern for empires. For some time, the conquering nation extracts wealth from its subjects, which seems to make expansion via military conquest worthwhile, but then it passes a point of diminishing, then negative returns. For the US, that negative return point probably happened decades ago. The Korean War? Vietnam? Who really knows?

Anyway, the US economy is pretty far from thriving, and the sectors that are thriving are bullshit. Facebook? Meh.

Consequently, I think the only place there will be future growth is in the unofficial economy--the gray and black market. They'll thrive because of no regulation and no taxes. Those businesses won't look anything like their official market counterparts, mainly because an official business is really completely structured by "the system". It's a cog in a big machine.

It's also easy to imagine as the official world turns completely digital, the unofficial world goes the opposite direction, reviving old techniques for encoding information abandoning ledger books for "memory palaces" for example, or using cant languages instead of encryption.

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